Economic Forecasts Are Worse Than Weather Forecasts

Economic information comes from all angles in the media, constantly exposing us to endless analysis, commentary, opinion, and debate. Yet this onslaught doesn’t seem to make us any wiser as to where the economy is heading. Of the millions of people trying to read the economy, only a few are successful.

Most economic predictions are based on the wrong indicators, so there’s no chance that they will ever produce useful forecasts. Even when the right information is presented, it’s never presented in a way that’s easy for people to understand.

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