Everything is Cyclic

  • Most things are cyclical due to the involvement of humans, who are emotional and inconsistent
  • During a bull market, a few forward-looking people may first believe things will get better, then most investors will realize improvement is taking place, and eventually everyone will conclude things will get better forever
  • Analytical ability, objectivity, resolve, and imagination are needed to think things will get better and to take advantage of inefficiencies and mispricings for superior performance
  • Mistakes in investing often occur due to human emotions and psychological factors such as the desire for more, the fear of missing out, the tendency to compare to others, the influence of the crowd, and the dream of a sure thing.

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