FIFA 2018 Winner? Well, Machine Learning Algo Has Picked One

Goldman Sachs used machine learning to run 200,000 models, mining data on team and individual player attributes, to help forecast specific match scores.

They then simulated 1 million possible variations of the tournament in order to calculate the probability of advancement for each squad.
And the winner?

  • Brazil is expected to win its sixth World Cup title, defeating Germany in the final by an unrounded score of 1.70 to 1.41
  • While France has better overall odds of lifting the trophy, its expected meeting with Brazil in the semi-finals has it falling short of the title match
  • England is expected to make it to the quarter-final stage (and will lose to Germany).
  • Spain and Argentina are forecast to underperform, both losing in the quarter-finals
  • Russia isn’t expected to make it out of the group stage at all, despite its role as tournament host
  • Goldman sees Saudi Arabia as the surprising team that will advance out of the group stage, ahead of the host nation

[Download the report]


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