How to Expect the Unexpected: Leveraging the Science of Predictions

Author and mathematician Kit Yates provides a deep dive into the science of making predictions and understanding randomness.

He explores how our inherent biases can lead to misconceptions about randomness, nonlinearity, and value for money.

Drawing from his book ‘How to Expect the Unexpected’, he shares insights on how we can leverage this knowledge in everyday decision-making.

The Concept of Linearity

Linearity implies a relationship where a fixed change in one variable leads to a consistent change in another.

However, many real-world situations are characterized by non-linear relationships that challenge our assumptions or predictions.

Nonlinearity in Everyday Scenarios

Nonlinear circumstances occur when variables don’t have a linear relationship.

For example, running times for different distances or drying towels on a line do not necessarily double with doubling the distance or number of towels due to factors like physical limitations or space constraints.

Area vs Length/Diameter’s Impact

When considering areas rather than lengths or diameters alone, nonlinearity comes into play.

For instance, mowing a field with sides three times longer would take nine times longer because the area matters more than the length of one side.

Similarly, buying one 16-inch pizza gives you more value than two 8-inch pizzas as what counts is the area of the pizza, not its diameter.