India to overtake China in mobile market by 2013 [Report]

We had recently written about worldwide mobile handset sales and earlier on growth of mobile handset market in India. As per a latest report by London based Informa Telecoms, India’s mobile subscriber base is set to rise to 1.159 billion by the end of 2013, thus making it the world’s largest mobile market. While India is poised to have phenomenal growth, the market in China is actually set to slow down. By the end of 2013, the number of active mobile subscriptions in China will be 1.106 billion.

The report also states that not only will India surpass China in terms of the total number of active subscriptions by 2013, but the Indian market will have a higher subscription penetration rate (75 per cent) than China’s by the end of 2011 (69 per cent). As per the last statistics of TRAI, the current Tele-density in India had reached 52.74 mark as on 31st March 2010.

Despite the higher growth rate in India, when it comes to operators and revenues, India will continue to lag behind. By the end of 2013, the Chinese mobile market will be worth approximately $107.5 billion, as compared to India’s mobile market, which is set to be worth approximately $35.5 billion.

As per the senior market forecaster of the report, more number of players, increased competition and multi-SIM activity are the key reasons for this growth in India. While India enjoys many national and regional players in this segment, China has just three operators on a countrywide level. Lack of competition there is one of the key reasons for lesser promotional activities and price based offers.

Well, even till now new players like Onida, Karbonn, Videocon etc are entering the mobile handset market in India which on a broader level seems to be overcrowded and dominated by biggies like Nokia, Samsung, Sony Eriscsson or Motorola. And to add to that there are tough price games like 1p/sec or 29p/30sec by almost each operator in India.

Considering the current market dynamics and potential of mobile market in India, these figures don’t seem to be too hyped up as of now but will the statistics get affected with changes like 3G and mobile portability in India?