Indian election 2019 : Predictions Using Machine Learning Algo

A manequeen with different Indian political parties stole are on disply in shop in the western Indian City of Mumbai on 10th March 2009.Stoles are very popular among the political leaders and the supporters (credit: Flickr)

The whole country is in exit polls fever now and curious about their party’s fate in the coming elections and I am not the exception of this band. All exit polls are the predictions from the people’s opinion and a thought stuck in my mind that what would be Artificial Intelligence’s opinion. Machine learning strike the chord and I made hand dirty over the weekend and have done some research on the data then identified some feature list to predict the Election 2019 winner using Machine learning.

Election commission of India

I have collected the data from the election commission of India for the past 5 terms of data spanning from 1998 to 2014 results. Below is the dataset that I have captured with various features includes State, constituency, Gender, Caste, Votes polled, Votes majority and finally Party Won. Below is the dataset that is obtained from the https://eco.Gov.in.

Election Results India Data
Election Results India Data

Machine Learning Algorithms

Now time to choose the machine learning algorithms for the prediction so I have implemented two different algorithms and surprisingly both the results are completely different. Below are the algorithms that are implemented:

  1. Multi-class Logistic regression
  2. Multi-class Neural networks

I wanted to do the exclusive classification algorithms but ML studio is providing all advanced blended algorithms so used the above to obtain the result. Finally after running the entire flow below are the resultant CSV that I have received.

Conclusion

The results time, Initially I thought of publishing the complete result but sticking to high level number rather hurting the local sentiments. Below is the final result of the experiment :

Using Multi-class Neural networks:

BJP — 337

INC — 110

Others — 96

Using Multi-class Logistic Regression:

BJP -208

INC-171

Other-164

India Election Results Prediction
India Election Results Prediction

Agree? Disagree?

[Analyzed by Ashok Boddeda]

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