Significant Impact

  • Black Swan events are rare and have a profound impact on society or the world. For example, the discovery that the sun is the center of the universe, rather than the earth, had a major impact on society and our understanding of the world. Similarly, the attacks on 9/11 and the landing on the moon were Black Swan events that had a significant impact on the world.
  • Although Black Swan events are unpredictable, humans tend to explain them in hindsight as if they could have been perfectly understood and predicted. This is known as retrospective predictability. This tendency can lead us to overestimate our ability to predict the future and to underestimate the impact of unexpected events.

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