Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts – Annie Duke

In ‘Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts’, Annie Duke, a former professional poker player, combines her poker experience with cognitive psychology to challenge our notions about decision making. She argues that we can make better choices by embracing uncertainty and making probabilistic bets, rather than seeking certainty.

Embrace Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a constant in life.

Instead of trying to eliminate it, we should embrace it.

By doing so, we can make more informed decisions that better reflect the reality of our situation.

Risk Management

Effective risk management involves identifying, assessing, and controlling threats to an organization’s capital and earnings.

It is a crucial aspect of decision making.

Cognitive Biases

Cognitive biases can significantly affect our decision-making process.

Being aware of these biases can help us make more rational decisions.

The Fallacy of Resulting

The fallacy of resulting is judging a decision solely based on its outcome.

It’s important to separate the decision quality from the result to learn and improve.