Step-by-step, year-by-year, the world is improving. Not on every single measure every single year, but as a rule. Though the world faces huge challenges, we have made tremendous progress. This is a fact-based worldview.
The ” World Population Is Just Increasing” Misconception
It’s true that the world population is increasing. Very fast. But it’s not just increasing.
The “just” implies that, if nothing is done, the population will just keep on growing. It implies that some drastic action is needed in order to stop the growth. That is a misconception based on our instinct to assume that lines are straight.
Good News is Slow
Gradual progress is nothing new. When a trend gradually improves with periodic dips, the dips are more likely to be noticed than the overall improvement.
More news does not imply more pain. More bad news is sometimes the result of better monitoring of suffering, not a worsening world.
Be wary of rosy histories. People frequently extol their early experiences, and nations frequently extol their histories.
The straight line instinct
This instinct describes our tendency to believe that a line will simply continue straight, despite the fact that such lines are uncommon in reality.
But don’t count on straight lines. Many trends are S-bends, slides, humps, or double lines rather than straight lines. No child has ever maintained the rate of growth that it demonstrated in its first six months, and no parent would expect it to.
The Destiny Instinct
This is the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions, or cultures. It’s the idea that things are as they are for ineluctable, inescapable reasons: they have always been this way and will never change.
Remember that many things appear to be constant just because the change is happening slowly, and remember that even small, slow changes gradually add up to big changes.
The Generalization Instinct Part 2
Remember that categories are misleading. So question your categories.
- Look for differences within groups.
- Look for differences across groups. Do not assume that what applies to one group also applies to another.
- Beware of “the majority.” Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in between.
- Beware of vivid examples. They might be the exception rather than the rule.
- When something looks strange, be curious and humble.
The Fear Instinct
The fear instinct describes our proclivity to pay more attention to things that are frightening.
For obvious evolutionary reasons, these fears are hardwired deep within our brains. Fears of physical harm, captivity, and poison once aided our forefathers in their survival. Perceptions of these dangers still arouse our fear instincts in modern times.
The Urgency Instinct
The urgency instinct describes our tendency to take immediate action in the face of perceived imminent danger, amplifying our other instincts in the process.
Controlling Urgency Instincts
Take a deep breath. When your urgency instinct is activated, your other instincts take over, and your analysis is put on hold. Request more time and information.
Be wary of drastic measures. Inquire about the potential side effects. Inquire about how the concept has been tested.
Critical thinking is always difficult, but it’s almost impossible when we are scared. There’s no room for facts when our minds are occupied by fear.
Human beings have a strong dramatic instinct toward binary thinking, a basic urge to divide things into two distinct groups, with nothing but an empty gap in between. We love to dichotomize. Good versus bad. Heroes versus villains. My country versus the rest. Dividing the world into two distinct sides is simple and intuitive, and also dramatic because it implies conflict, and we do it without thinking, all the time.
How To Control The Gap Instinct
Remember that reality is often not polarized at all.
Look for the majority to control the gap instinct. You will probably discover that there is no gap at all.
Extreme comparisons should be avoided. There are some at the top and some at the bottom of every group.
Even when the disparity is extreme, the majority is usually somewhere in the middle, right where the gap is supposed to be.
The Gap Instinct
This is the irresistible urge we have to categorise everything into two distinct and frequently conflicting groups.
The gap instinct leads us to envision division where there is only a smooth range, differences where there is convergence, and conflicts where there is agreement.
It paints a picture of a world divided into two types of countries or people: rich and poor.
The Single Perspective Instinct
A single perspective can limit your imagination; look at problems from many angles to get a more accurate understanding and find practical solutions.
Test your ideas. Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
The Blame Instinct
The blame instinct describes our proclivity to seek a clear, simple explanation for why something bad has occurred.
To control the blame instinct, avoid looking for a scapegoat. Look for causes rather than villains.
Look for systems rather than individuals. When someone claims to have caused something good, consider whether the outcome would have occurred even if that person had done nothing.
The image of a dangerous world has never been broadcast more effectively than it is now, while the world has never been less violent and safer.
The Fear Instinct Part 2
Recognize when frightening things catch your attention and remember that these are not always the most dangerous. Determine the risks.
The scary world: fear vs. reality. The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected precisely because it is scary.
Risk = danger × exposure. How dangerous is something? And how much are you exposed to it?
The Negativity Instinct
The negativity instinct describes our proclivity to focus on the negative rather than the positive.
So, when you hear something terrible, ask yourself, “Would I have heard about it if there had been an equally large positive improvement?”
Keep in mind that information about negative events is much more likely to reach us. Be prepared for bad news.
Practice differentiating between levels and directions of change. Convince yourself that things can go either way.
Good news is not breaking news. The good news is rarely reported. When you hear bad news, consider whether equally good news would have reached you.
Forming your worldview by relying on the media would be like forming your view of me by looking only at a picture of my foot.
The Size Instinct
The size instinct describes our tendency to exaggerate or misjudge the size of things.
You only need two tools to avoid getting things out of proportion: comparing and dividing.
Compare. Big numbers always appear to be big. Always look for parallels.
Divide. Rates and amounts can tell very different stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing groups of varying sizes.
The Generalization Instinct
- This instinct can make us mistakenly group together things that are actually very different.
- It can make us assume everything or everyone in one category is similar.
- It can make us jump to conclusions about a whole category based on a few, or even just one, unusual example.
Limited expertise
Don’t claim expertise beyond your field; be humble about what you don’t know. Be aware too of the limits of your expertise and others.
Be open to ideas from other fields.
History is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to justify terrible actions. Combine ideas. Compromise. Solve problems on a case-by-case basis.
