How to overcome confirmation bias
Parent Post
What is confirmation bias?When
What is confirmation bias?
When you gain a perspective or theory, you tend to interpret everything as confirming that idea. Whatever seems to contradict it is tossed aside or somehow contorted to fit our beliefs.
If you adopt the
If you adopt the mindset, you’ll see that your attitude will change.
You’ll be more open-minded, and less likely to be dismissive of others or other sources of information.
And in doing so, you should reap some serious intellectual benefits.
To cure this ill
To cure this ill of self-confirming theories, Professor Karl Popper came up with falsificationism.
It is the idea that a theory or belief system can only be scientific if it clearly lays out what specific evidence would prove it wrong.
So, if you’re going to claim that you know something, be willing to admit that you could be wrong about it. You have to lay out what evidence would prove you wrong.
How you can adopt
How you can adopt a falsification mindset
Adopting the falsification mindset is simple. Like any exercise in thinking, it helps if you write it out, but that’s not totally necessary.
- For any belief you have, ask what it would take for you to change your mind.
- Be specific about what evidence would make you change your mind.
- Seek out that evidence, and be willing to change your belief if you find it.
Why is falsification important?Popper’s
Why is falsification important?
Popper’s principle can help us become smarter and make better decisions Adopting an attitude of falsifiability does a few key things:
- It helps you to avoid many cognitive biases that can hinder intellectual growth and good decision making.
- It makes you a clearer thinker by forcing you to be specific about what you think you know, and what evidence you have.
- It boosts your creative thinking and makes you receptive to new ideas
Ask yourself how you
Ask yourself how you could be proven wrong — about any old belief you have.
Are you researching a big purchase? If so, what discovery would cause you to cancel the purchase?
Are you working toward a professional goal? If so, what new facts or experiences would convince you that this is the wrong goal?
Putting the falsification mindset
Putting the falsification mindset into action
The falsifiability mindset is all about thinking through the implications of beliefs, judgments, and decisions. It’s about curbing your craving for certainty.
For the decision that you’re making, take out a clean sheet of paper, and draw a line down the middle.
On the left side, write at the top “What i believe to be true.”
On the right side, write at the top “What would prove me wrong.”
The right side is
The right side is where you will have to do a bit of thinking and this practice can yield dividends.
What would prove you wrong forces you to do 3 important things:
- Clarify what your actual belief is.
- Confronts the possibility that you could be wrong.
- Encourages you to tacitly commit to changing your mind under some specific conditions.