Niall Ferguson on Why We Study History | Conversations with Tyler
In a thought-provoking conversation with Tyler, historian Niall Ferguson delves into the importance of studying history in its own context, the cultural differences between English and Scottish pessimism, and the influence of Marx’s pessimistic view of history.
He also explores the concept of an ‘epistemic crisis’ faced by modernity, the idea of the ‘singularity’, and the importance of counterfactual history.
The Epistemic Crisis of Modernity
Modernity is facing an ‘epistemic crisis’, where we are haunted by doomsday scenarios deeply ingrained in our subconscious due to religious influences.
Despite living in a secular society, these end-of-the-world scenarios can lead to a skewed perception of reality.
The Concept of ‘Singularity’
The concept of the ‘singularity’, a point in the future when technologies will converge to create superhuman beings with extended lifespans and artificial general intelligence, is another extreme scenario that distracts us from more likely outcomes.
Counterfactual History: A Necessary Exploration
Counterfactual history, or the exploration of what might have happened under different circumstances, is crucial.
It is argued that we spend too much time thinking about unlikely scenarios, such as the end of the world or a massive leap forward in technology, rather than considering more probable outcomes.
The Glorious Revolution and the Whigs
The Glorious Revolution, a period in British history when the Dutch took over the British Isles, is discussed.
It is suggested that the Whigs, a political faction that was largely motivated by religious prejudice and hostility to Roman Catholicism, would have been supported.
Scotland’s Transformation
Scotland’s transformation from a violent, dysfunctional society in the 17th century to a dynamic, enlightened society in the 18th century is attributed to the influence of English and Dutch institutions, which helped Scotland escape its violent past.
The Philosophy of History
The philosophy of history and the importance of understanding the past in order to inform our present is discussed.
Most historians today are indifferent to the philosophy of history, which is considered a great loss.
The problem is that we’re haunted by doomsday scenarios because they’re seared in our subconscious by religion even though we think we’re very secular. – Niall Ferguson
Brexit and Northern Ireland
The complexities of Brexit and its implications for Northern Ireland are discussed.
The Northern Ireland protocol, which effectively places a customs border in the Irish Sea, is considered unworkable and a blow to unionism in Northern Ireland.
The Future of the United Kingdom
The future of the United Kingdom could undergo further changes in the coming decades.
Younger people in Northern Ireland are less concerned about remaining part of the UK than older generations, and English voters are largely indifferent to the prospect of Irish reunification or Scottish independence.
The Role of Libraries
Libraries play a crucial role in life and work.
Public libraries enabled wide reading as a child, and are considered superior to Google as a source of information because they sort material in an honest way, rather than to sell ads.
