This is why I’m skeptical of products like Wabi (started by Replika founder, raised $20mn in seed round, received a whole lot of love from YC and a16z)
They may look exciting.
They may attract creators.
They may even get strong early engagement.
That still does not mean they become enduring consumer businesses.
Because AI may not actually change the underlying structure of the market.
It may just flood it with more supply.
And more supply does not automatically create more demand.
What probably happens instead is:
- a few creators become much more leveraged
- a lot of users become casual remixers
- everyone else keeps consuming
That is not a creator revolution.
That is just a more efficient content machine.
And that is a much worse business than many founders think.
Why?
Because creation tools are not enough.
You need either:
1. Utility
Something that helps people complete a job they already care about
2. Distribution
A place where people actually come to consume
The second is incredibly hard.
Because AI lowers creation cost.
It does not lower distribution cost.
And distribution is still the bottleneck. Always has been.